Analysis rules
How this analysis is built
Latest snapshot - 07 May 2026, 20:07
Next snapshot in about 24m. Auction house snapshots are captured every hour.
- Horde and Alliance auction-house snapshots are stored separately and pages use the faction selected in the top bar unless a page is explicitly comparing both factions.
- Current price, quantity, auction count, and latest item availability come from the latest captured snapshot for the selected faction.
- Market average, regional sale rate, and regional sold-per-day fields come from the available TSM market fields. When a value is regional rather than Thunderstrike-only, the page labels it that way.
- LLM commentary is cached against a specific snapshot and faction. It explains the numbers already captured; it does not invent prices, auctions, or sales data.
- Analysis signals are generated by the same rule payload as the item commentary: deal quality, Price Bait/reset detector, market regime, confidence, and starter budget guidance all use the selected faction's current price, market average, supply, auction count, regional sold/day, regional sales rate, stability, and trend fields.
- Sections with no rows mean no item passed that section's current filters in that refresh window, not that the market has no activity.
Page data map
What each page uses
- Home: uses the latest snapshot status, current faction selection, site navigation, and selected headline market signals.
- Auction House: uses live snapshot rows for the selected faction. Search, filters, pagination, price history, watch buttons, and item popups all switch between Horde and Alliance data.
- Item Intelligence: uses the selected faction's item history, latest price, market average, quantity, auction count, sale-rate fields, cached LLM or rule analysis, and a last 4 weeks price heatmap.
- Market Deals: has separate Horde and Alliance views. Horde uses the richer shared summary tables for craft, flip, demand, and supply sections. Alliance uses Alliance snapshot rows plus Alliance-specific cached LLM reads; Alliance craft-profit summaries are only shown once Alliance craft summary data exists.
- Horde vs Alliance: compares matching Horde and Alliance item rows. It calculates current price gaps, current route profit, average price difference after the 15% auction-house cut, quantity, auctions, and sale context from both factions.
- Intelligence Feed: uses external gold-making leads and curated source notes, then links those ideas back to auction-house items where there is enough item context. Treat it as research input, not a current-price table.
- Price Alerts: records requested alert rules against the item, faction, threshold, and trigger style selected by the user. Alerts should be evaluated against future snapshots for the matching faction.
- Watchlist: stores tracked items by profile and by faction, so one profile can hold separate Horde and Alliance item lists. The analysis shown for a watched item follows the faction currently selected.
- Analysis Rules: explains the data sources and filters. It is documentation for the site, not a separate market signal.
- Feedback: stores user-submitted feedback and page context. It does not alter market calculations directly.
Section Rules
- Flipping focuses on buy/resell opportunities that clear profit, margin, sold/day, and Price Bait checks.
- Crafting focuses on finished outputs where current sale price beats material cost after the auction-house cut.
- Transmuting is separated from normal crafting so cooldown-style opportunities do not pollute quick checks.
- No-competition posting looks for low-current-supply markets with historical demand and enough usual value.
- Price movement tables compare recent snapshots for the selected faction and colour rises green and reductions red.
- Heatmaps show observed hourly price pressure. The 7-day heatmap is for recent timing; the 4-week heatmap is for broader pattern checks.
- Average price profit on Horde vs Alliance subtracts the 15% auction-house cut from the sell-side average before comparing it with the buy-side average.
- Deal quality scores combine discount or profit, demand, supply, price stability, trend, and positive-profit context. Extreme outliers are capped so Price Bait listings cannot become high-score opportunities.
- Price Bait/reset detector flags likely Price Bait when current price is more than 4x market average or above the 400% difference guardrail. It flags reset risk when price is high and supply is very thin, and thin demand when sale speed is weak.
- Market regime labels classify the row as range-bound, volatile, supply squeeze, markdown phase, oversupplied, or liquid stable from trend, stability, supply, and demand.
- Confidence and gold budget guidance use available history, market average, demand fields, stability, and outlier status. Gold budget guidance scales the first entry by deal quality and confidence, and drops to zero for likely Price Bait.
- LLM cards are generated only from cached market payloads for the relevant faction and snapshot. If no LLM row exists, the site may show a rules-based fallback or omit that signal.